Thursday, January 8, 2009

USD/JPY:1 hour


I would rather post about the EURO at the end of the week before NFP

thank you.

25 comments:

anon said...

Although USD/JPY Weekly and Daily charts are favouring shorts, hourly chart is in favour of a long trade.

anon said...

Naftula, would appreciate your comments on Gbp/Usd.
My views (before BOE announcement)
Daily - short on cross down
4 hr - Neutral
1 hr - long on cross up (happening now @ 1.5090)
15 min - neutral

Coincidentally, my view for Gbp/Chf and Gbp/Jpy is the same as Gbp/Usd - except for Gbp/Jpy - 4hr - it is bullish if cross up.

anon said...

Sorry, USD/Jpy - weekly, daily and 15min are in favour of short trades, while hourly is neutral!!!

naftula said...

Anon,
hi, I don't see a cross down on GBP/USD daily, but as you said GBP 1 hour, may push it up now,

the 4 hour chart is worrying me I would say it's neutral to down,

For some reason I don't expect the EURO to below 1.3480.

naftula said...

ben,
are you selling GBP now?

naftula said...

anon,
what do you think about selling USD/CAD on 1-4 hour chart

anon said...

naftula
gbp/usd - daily chart is biased towards a short when a cross down happens.
usd/cad - 4hr chart - short on a cross down. 1hr chart - neutral. 15 min chart - long if cross up happens.

eur/chf - it is a sell on cross down on ALL time frames!

gbp/jpy - waiting for a cross down on daily chart to sell.

gbp/chf - waiting for cross down on daily chart, but take a few days!

anon said...

naftula

you call on usd/jpy was spot on! great job!

anon said...

naftula
i am trying a modified version of your system. it is a triple ema and stoch cross system. 200, 50 and 21 emas should be stacked up or down, i.e. 21 should be above 50 which should be above 200 for a long signal; and 21 should be below 50 which should be below 200 for a short signal. This stack up or down should be combined with a corresponding stoch cross to take a long or short trade. however, this is seen for each time frame individually, and can be traded independently of the other time frames.

let me take gbp/usd to explain further:
weekly - all 3 emas indicate bias for a short trade. however, stochs are oversold i.e below 20.
daily - all 3 emas indicate bias for a short trade, and stoch are approaching overbought levels. so short signal will be triggered on a stoch cross down above 80.
4 hr - 21 is between 200 and 50, so neutral stance, irrespective of whether the stoch crosses.
1 hr - all 3 emas indicate bias for a long trade. however, cross up already happened below 20 (when the long signal was triggered), but now stoch are approaching overbought levels.
15 min - all 3 emas indicate bias for a long trade. however, stochs are at overbought levels. when stochs are below 20 and if all 3 emas are aligned for a log trade, only then a long trade signal will be triggered.

please comment.

naftula said...

Anon,
Thank you, it looks very good I will try it out for a couple of days, and will see


Anon,
If the 50EMA crosses above the 100 SMA on the 4 hour GBP/USD, then I will be bullish until I see a cross down on the daily.
Do you agree?

naftula said...

anon,
should have taken the USD/CAD on the 1 hour.

but should could have!!!!!

naftula said...

i am going short EUR/CHF on the 15 min chart,
1.5040 is a very important level!

anon said...

naftula
gbp/usd - 4hr chart - if 50ema is above 100ema, then it would be bullish. but can go long only on a cross up below 20. however, i don't use 100 ema. also, signal for each time frame are independent of the other time frames. if long signal has been triggered on 4 hr, while short signal is ready on daily, then it may be a pull back/retracement on the 4hr chart. Both signals are tradeable.

usd/cad - short signal triggered on 4hr, but price action has been swift, so better to wait for short signal to trigger on 15 min to enter a short trade.

naftula said...

As we are standing now Thursday night before the NFP,

I have sold the EURO on the 1 hour chart, I was not so confident about it, but I toke a small position,

I would like for the EURO to go down until the NFP, and after the NFP it should reveres and brake 1.3800.

But this is only what I would like it doesn't mean that it will happen.

anon said...

naftula
do you see likely sell eur/gbp on 15min and 1 hr if cross down happens above 20?

rk said...

Wasnt around yesterday.Looking to short GB/USD on 15 minutes stoch cross.

Anybodt with any different idea

naftula said...

support is at 1.6350

anon said...

rk
on 1hr and 15min, i would look to go long, while on daily i would look to go short. this is based on my modified system described in an earlier post.

RK said...

Thanks guys.

Naftula

Do you long term support for gb/usd or do you mean 1.5350

naftula said...

i mean on EURO at 1.3550,
sorry

anon said...

aud/usd - 15min - ready to short on cross down above 80.

naftula said...

anon,
maybe it's just me, but i would not sell it because the 4 hour chart, and the 1 hour chart.

naftula said...

i will try to sell USD/CHF befor the NFP.

Ben said...

I haven't traded since yesterday, i had some work to do and i couldn't be in front of the charts. Totally missed NFP.

Yesterday i took a short on gbp at 1,5263 to average.

Nadtula, did you short on g-chf already, or you're waitinng to 1,70 ?

maicher said...

Although from different places, but this perception is consistent, which is relatively rare point!
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