The EUR/CHF 1 hour, is in a triangle for the last week, and we just reached the top of the triangle and are falling. If it will break 1.4930 we can see a good move to 1.4800.
Monday, January 12, 2009
EUR/CHF: 1hour
The EUR/CHF 1 hour, is in a triangle for the last week, and we just reached the top of the triangle and are falling. If it will break 1.4930 we can see a good move to 1.4800.
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19 comments:
naftula
eur/chf on 1 hr looks like a sell @ 1.4950.
gbp/usd on daily looks like a sell @ 1.4844, alhough it is o/s on all other time frames. what do you think?
nzd/usd - 15 min looks like a sell @ 0.5796.
eur/gbp - looks like a sell @ 0.8963.
gbp/chf - waiting for a buy on 1hr is a cross up happens, or a sell on daily if a cross down happens (maybe tomorrow?)
not sure whether anybody is interested in the modified system, anyhow i would like to give an update.
today was a classic example on how to use the system in different time frames.
eur/gbp - on 15min there was a sell signal before european session. however, price started moving up, although the trade could have been exited at breakeven or with a small profit. once price moved up, stochs became o/s on 15min and the set up (3 emas stack) was not fulfilled. therefore, i was no longer interested in 15min and shifted to 1hr chart. and a sell signal was triggered in this hour.
sell signals were triggered for most pairs on 15mins, and could re-enter trades for most non-gbp pairs. for gbp and jpy pairs, 15min signal entered o/b territory, so no new trades could be entered. if one had taken the initial sell signal, the trade could still be running.
here's what i usally do;
for short/long trade signal - if stochs on 15min chart stays above 80/below 20, then i look to higher time frames for a short/long signal. such as today gbp/usd is tradeable to the short side(according to thsi system) only on daily charts as it is in o/s region on all other lower time frames.
any comments/questions?
anon,
I would like to research it a little longer, and then I'll come back ok?
it's not finish in the EUR/CHF more to come.
naftula
not a problem, take your time.
usd/jpy - interesting - oversold on all time frames except daily, which will be in o/s territory very soon, may be around 88.73 (78.6% retracement. Now, the modified system does not give long signal anytime soon, but there is a huge potential for reversal trades. would anybody like to share a sytem to trade this reversal? I would probably look for candle stick reversal formation on daily chart. If i give a few initial pips on reversal, then 15min chart will be the first to give long signals; despite other time frames showing o/s. either way, usd./jpy will be an interesting pair to watch, and test reversal strategies.
anon,
88.80-70 is 76.4% of the move from 87 to 94.50 so if if support holds than maybe.
but why do think it's a "huge potential for reversal"?
naftula
i indicated that dailies will be in o/s territory around 88.73, but did not say that a reversal will happen at that level. since stochs will be o/s in all time frames, and they will reverse sooner or later. and when that happens, it would mean huge profit potential for reversal or long trades.
i am sorry if i gave an impression that the reversal will happen at 88.73.
since the charts will be o/s territoty in all time frames, short signals will not get triggered. so, i am looking for a system to determine the reversal.
on eur/gbp - the level was determined on 1hr chart. however, it was not a "clean" signal although stochs had crossed down, but price was below 200ema and above 50 1nd 21 emas.
thank you anon,
sorry.
naftula
gbp/chf - on daily chart, would 61.8% retracement @ 1.5810-25 area be a good target?
gbp/chf - what would be the target omn daily charts - 78.6% (1.4570) or 100% (1.4350)?
eur/chf - still some more downside?
sorry, should be gbp/usd for 1.5810-25.
Anon ,
On GBP/CHF I don’t know, the sell was not a very strong one so…….
On the EUR/CHF yes, I believe there is more downside, and I will sell it on the 15 min chart, in a couple of minutes.
Hi guys
I took a long g-y at 130,41
This is our long RK ! hehe
If there's a stop-hunt i'll take another long around 129.
Naftula, what would be your target for eur-chf ?
I took following posirions yesterday,still open
gb/jy long 132
eur/gb long 89.9
gb/chf short 165.2
i guess went to early on gb/jp.
Does anyone have idea on
Where do u see bottom of gb/usd
Ben,
My target on my short that I have taken now is 1.4770 but I believe we will go below 1.4750.
Rk,
if you look at the 4 hour GBP/USD chart you will see that we are in a rang for the last 2 months, the bottom of the rang is 1.4460-1.4360
I personally think G-U will touch the bottom Naftula said again, and then rise big and break the range.
I took another long on g-y at 130,10. I have 2 now, one that i'm gonna close when i see 50-60 pips profit, and the other one that i'm gonna keep for the long run, aiming 300-400 pips.
i will have a sell "later in the day" on USD/JPY, i will post it.
i would take a short USD/JPY and a second one at 90.00
Good Blog, I think I want to find me, I will tell my other friends, on all!
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