Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Surry I was not in my office yesterday,

I recognize that I took my positions to early,
and now can somebody please help me out, with my position, (I am not talking about my short USD/JPY, because I expected this, and I am glad that it’s going up, and if the USD/JPY will reach 96.50 I will sell it again,) but I am talking about the GBP/CHF, that I am short from 1.6060, and I am now deeply in red.
although when I look at the 4 hour chart, I am still very very confident that it will go down, but when I look at the daily chart, I see the possibility of the GBP/CHF going first to about 1.7000.

So my question is, should I close my position with a loss, and re-open it if it goes to 1.7000, or should I just add to my position if it reaches 1.7000?.

can you please look at the GBP/CHF and tell me what you think about it?
your answer will be greatly appreciated.
thank you.

19 comments:

RK said...

Guys

Welcome back.Hope you had a good break.I certainly did.New year starts with cable going very strong
but for how long?

naftula said...

Rx,
Welcome back,

If GBP will appreciate then EUR will appreciate more than GBP, as I believe EUR/GBP will go up.

naftula said...

On the EUR/CHF, we are now at a very strong support at 1.4975, will see !!!

Ben said...

Hi

Naftula,

If i were you, i'd wait. GBP was really strong yesterday against every single currency, and i don't think it will go to 1,70 these days.
If it gets there you short again, if not you wait till it gets closer to your price.

Maybe i'm totally wrong, but that's what i'd do, mostly based on the extraordinary rise of GBP, which has to be corrected.

I'm going short GBP-USD at 1,4952

RK said...

Ben on what chart did you decide to short gb/usd and what do u see it coming down to.

naftula said...

ben,
i will do exactly what you told me.

Ben said...

RK, i saw CCI at 250, which is extremely overbought on the 30min... i normally don't take them when the trend is up, but i know GBP will fall in the coming days, it's common sense. When EUR-GBP will be back at 0,95, G-U wil, be around 1,46 again.

I don't base everything on charts or tehnicals, i try to see it from a global perspective. I might be wrong, of course, but it's worked fine for me till now, overall.

RK said...

THanks Ben.

I also shorted at 1.504 but i just feel that this time sterling will rise based on daily charts and the fall is overdone.

naftula said...

i also believe that we will se EUR/GBP at 0.96 in the coming days,
but we can see GBP/USD going first to 1.52 or higher

naftula said...

i will post later today charts about the EUR/USD longer term,

i believe the EURO can go to 1.5000!!!

naftula said...

EUR/CHF

RK said...

I am looking forward to Naftulas analysis of uer/usd hotting 1.5

rk said...

Ben

are u THinking of taking another short gb/usd? I am if price reaches
1.517

anon said...

naftula
gbp/chf - if you are convinced that it will go to 1.7 before dropping below your entry level, then you should cut your positions. If the reason for your entry is not valid anymore, then cut your loss. Unlike your usd/jpy, where you have a trading plan, you are not confident of your gbp/chf trade - so cut this position - this will help you psychologically to look at other trades, rather than get worried about one (seemingly) losing trade.

Ben said...

Hey guys !

Looking forward to Naftula's chart too, i'm feeling bulish about EUR-US too.

RK, i'll wait till 1,52-1,53 arear before taking another short.
On mid-decembe it also went very quickly from 1,44 to 1,56 and then droped again very quickly. I'm expecting the same thing to happen, but not convinced that it will get to those high levels yet.
We'll see, but i won't short before 1,52.

Ben said...

Naftula, are you thinking about buying EUR-GBP ?
I'll wait today, and probably go long tomorrow...

naftula said...

ben,
I am already long, and I will add another long when the stochastic will cross, on the daily chart,

Ben said...

Ok, i'll probably take a long tomorrow morning, just not feeling it right now.

wow, G-U is already at 1,5250...i'll wait till tomorrow before BOE decision to take my second short...

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