If the trendline (neckline) is broken, then 155 should be the price target of this inverted H&S pattern.
Thanks, Anon for sending me this, and i remind anyone else that you can send me whatever you want so i can post it and give some life to the blog.
112 comments:
Went long AUD-US at 6380 and g-y at 133,55.
Closed my 1 gb/usd long at 1.4335
for only 30 pips.
Waiting for price to retrace to buy gb/jy
Closed aud-us at 6422 with 42 pips. and g-y at 134,85 with 130 pips.
I don't think i'm going to take new positions for weekend this week, like i did last week. Not feeling confident with the current markets. Seing DOW at 7300 points freaks me out.
Did you guys read the FINRA article i posted yeterday ? They are totally crazy...thank god most of US brokers are with NFA and CFTC and not with these douche bags.
Amazing moves ! Who would have thought... I closed my gbp-us long too, but didn't eur-us.
Hehehe Sivaraman RAN to write hos typical post of when he's right...unbelievable.
Have a good weekend all !
I sold my remaining half of GB/USD
(3 lots) at 1.459 for 285 pips.
Will look to go long again if price dips lower later.
I closed my eur-us long too, with 150 pips and still holding g-u, seing 200 pips now, put stop at 1,4590.
Went long again on eur-us at 1,2825.
any gbp/jpy trade ideas?
short on further signs of topping, i post later... Good pippin rk ben
Thanks Maxwell
Anon, i'll probably go long g-y when the current dip ends. Probably around 137. If 120 holds today for eur-y i'll go long too.
All my eur-us and gbp-us got closed.
Took half a lot on e-y at 120,43 and g-y at 137,63.
For the last weeks the correlation between stock markets and yen has been decreasing, which makes me be even more bearish on Yen.
THanks Maxwell
Look forward to your post.
Took more shorts at 1.4635.Looking to close at 1.4470/80 level,but will wait for your post.
i'm not so sure now, i'm going away in a few days, so will be busy on other things
i think it'll be best to continue will scalping as it gets more choppy and not for longer term trades
Closed eur-y with 200 pips and g-y with 130 pips.
Won't be trading today, i have to do some other stuff.
See you tomorrow.
Ben
Great Stuff
Hi guys !
I'm going long eur-us 1,2775 and g-y 138,85.
I definitely think we've seen the bottom for yen crosses for a long time. I don't see g-y going back to 120 and eur to 112.
I am long on following
Gb/usd 1.4265 (ave 2 lots)
GB/JY 139
Good prices RK !
I' still holding eur-us and closed g-y with 200 pips, and re entered g-y again at 140,29.
If there's a dip in gb-us i'll take a long too, same for eur-y.
yesterday, in response to fransesco, doc said that he expects eur/gbp to rise by 1300-1900 pips from current levels by next month. although today's levels are lower than yesterday;s, then 1.2650+0.1300=1.3950 should be a target for eur!!! let us wait and see.
i must admit that i have read other reports which are usd bearish.
i do not have a long term view, but i would turn moderately bullish if eur/usd can clear 50ema on dailies (today around 1.30 area) and would turn bullish if it can clear 200ema on dailies (now @ 1.3750).
Anon
I agree.
Ben
Only sold 1 lot of gb/usd at 1.4335
Missed selling my gb/jy by 15 pips.
Took i more gb/usd long 1.419
I closed g-y with 95 pips, but still holding eur-usd.
Anon, i agree, it's hard from a technical point of view to be bullish on eur. The only reason that i'm bullish on the long term, is thinking about stock intermarket. I'm USD bearish because as the Yen it has been overbought during the worst times for the markets, when evrybody was buying US treasuries, but if the markets start to rise for a couple of weeks, i'm pretty sure we can eur-us around 1,40 easily. Same for all other USD crosses, except us-yen and maybe us-chf.
frankly, when doc starts sounding over confident and starts making such predictions, market move in the opposite direction! hope this time around he is correct.
Hehe, hope so too, but besides what he says, which i don't take very seriously, although i read him everyday, i don't see any fundamental reason for USD strenghtening in the coming months.
G-Y touched the 200ema (around 136,90) on the 1 hour and quickly rebounded 120 pips.
Took a g-y long at 138,05.
Closed my g-y with 200 pips.
Ben
Well done.
Wasnt on the computer when all the action took place.
doc is now using a new element - F&O markets - to mask his inefficiency - "players are expected to hit the stops of the swap traders in derivative of the currency pairs in futures and options market and later rise". And, I have not heard of anybody being a "swap" trader!!!
hehehe, yes i was really surprised to see that too...obviously he has to bring some new "inputs" to his "analysis" since he's been saying the same thing since the 2nd january...2 months already, and nothing has hapenned yet...
Anyway, i took a gbp-us long at 1,4140 and g-y at 137,35. Wanted to short usd-cad at 1,29 but couldn't catch it, if it gets back there i'll short.
I noted it as well.
I am in as follows
GB/us 1.4144
GB/jy 137.49
I noted it as well.
I am in as follows
GB/us 1.4144
GB/jy 137.49
Took another gb-us at 1,4010...if we don't touch around 1,3850 today (descendant channel on the 1 hour), then i'm very bullish with the pair.
Still holding yesterday's longs on g-u and g-y and eur-us from last week.
Ben
I closed out 1 position yesterday at 1.4042 for 16 pips loss.
Still left with 3 lots ave 1.42
I do not intend to average more because res at 1.407 was broken.I am not sure now but am hoping for a bullish performance.I will only add small positions if large drops seen.
Still got 1 lot gb/jy at 137.49 long.
Yes RK, i'd wait too before averaging again, but i'm confident we will see a rise in GBP soon.
I'm seriously thinking about shorting usd-cad, i'll wait 1 or 2 hours, if 1,2950 big resistance holds, the 1,2950-1,30 zone has been triple tested and rejected 3 times in the last months, if it holds again i will go short for a long run of 400-500 pips.
Sold gb/jy at 139.57
Bought again at 138.81
Curiously Dr's prediction of usd/jy of 100 is close
I sold us-cad yesterday night at 1,2945, looking for 400 pips, with SL above 1,3050.
Closed us-cad with 150 pips...i don't want to wait till my initial PT of around 1,25, since i think it will take some time to get there...
I am trying to put Doc's prediction for today in a format which I feel is easy to understand :)
Japanese session -0030 - 0730 GMT
European session - 0800 - 1400 GMT
US session - 1430 - 2130 GMT
For Today:
BOE Interest rate decision: 1200 GMT
ECB Interest rate decision: 1245 GMT
Trichet's speech: 1330 GMT
Lows and high to be determined from http://www.i-knowindices.com/saxo_bank.htm
Doc's prediction for EUR & GBP today:
08:00 -11:00 GMT => quickly rise (early European session)
before 1200 GMT => slide and come near low
after 1200 GMT => rise after BOE decision
1200 - 1245 GMT => swing in the middle (???)
1330 GMT => rise during press conference
1400 - 1430 GMT => swing and slide
after 1430 GMT => rise
Not trading, so thought I should spend some time trying to interpret Doc's prediction!
heheh it's like intepreting a hierogliphic...
Well, let's see what happens today, but i don't see EUR rising till 1,30 until next week at best...
Bought gbp-us at 1,4060
If USD-cad goes back above 1,29 and doesen't break previous high, i'll go short again.
Sivaraman: 13h30 rise....euro falling 70 pips.
I really don't understand why he gives so detailed forecast if he doesen't even get one right...he should just give a sentiment for today or an overal rise or fall on the day, not give detailed info about every hour...
Even if it's really interesting to read him, he has lost all credibility...
Long Eur-Y at 123,12
Thinking about taking a eur-us long around 1,25 to average my old old 1,28.
ben
i am long eur/usd @ 1.25. any gbp/jpy trade ideas?
Didn't take gbp-y when i took eur-y, i should have...already 60 pips.
If it goes to the today's low i'm going to take a long then, otherwise i'll wait till tomorrow.
I don't about you guys, but FXCM, one of my 2 brokers (the other is oanda) is chargin bigger spreads than any other big news day: right now, 3 hours after the news it's:
eur-usd: 7 pips
gbp-usd: 8 pips
gbp-jpy: 22 pips !!!
eur-jpy: 12 pips
usd-chf: 9 pips
I've never seen som wide spreads, 3 hour after news release.
What about your brokers ?
Oanda's spreads are pretty fair now, 3 pips eur-usd
my broker is dbFX
eur/usd 2 (was 4 a few mins ago)
gbp/usd 5
usd/chf 3
usd/jpy 4
Now they adjusted them to a more normal spread, more or less like yours, even g-y is now 7 pips.
Thinking about going long g-y now, we'll see if it breaks 138,50, if it doesen't i'll go long.
Went long g-y 138,85
Guys
Took 2 longs this morning
Gb/USD 1.408
GB/JY 139.40(not sure about it now)
Did not trade this afternoon.I agree spreads were ridiculous.
24 pips on GB/JY.
Yesterday was good.with 3 longs at ave 1.405 sold for 75 pips each and gb/JY sold 2 longs for total 150 pips.
Any news of Naftula and Max?
I took a short on eur-usd at 1,2680 (yes yes, me buying USD), just for short term, i'll try to close with 50 pips during NFP, then i'm still keeping my original long at around 1,28, which is my long term bias.
ALso took a usd-y long at 97.
Still holding my Yen longs, both eur and gbp, if eur goes to 122 i'll average and gbp to 136 too. Otherwise i'll just ait patiently.
I'm still keeping the same idea with usd-cad, if it goes above 1,29 and doesen't break the previous high i will short and keep it for 400 pips profit at least. But i want to see this confirmation first.
ben, when you say "holding Yen longs" against eur & gbp, you actually mean you have gone long eur/jpy and gbp/jpy, therefore, yen shorts?
i am considering going long gbp/jpy around 136.50 level - trend line support and hope a cross up on 4hr charts.
eur/usd - 4 hr chart - met resistance at 50% fib 1.2990 ~ 1.2455! if it moves below 1.2650, then maybe more downside presure.
Anon, yes, sorry, i said longs meaning i'm long on the pairs, g-y and e-y, i took both of them yesterday, saw 50 pips at least on each but was too greedy and now i'm seing loss hehe. But i'm confident they'll rise back today or next week easily.
The Yen has lost alot of it's strength, i think all the carry trade that were taken for the last 5-6 years got closed already when Yen was around 120 in g-y and 112 in e-y or around 52 in aud-y. It's over, and the confirmation for that is we're seeing S&P and DOW and they're lowest levels but Yen crosses are holding pretty well.
Anon, i'm also waiting for g-y to come around that level, 136,50 or even a bit below to get a new long and average.
Eur-y has already broken the trend line support in my 1 hour chart, so i'll average on the horizontal support around 122, or even less if they do a wild stop hunt.
ben
your logic for carry trade exits makes sense. never considered that earlier earlier!
i have been wondering past few weeks - volatility has increased a lot in fx markets, and earlier traders would be happy with 60 pips on eur/usd as daily ranges were around 72 pips. have those ame trader become greedy of richer of both???
Hehe i totally agree on that, it's amazing the volatility we're seeing since this summer. There's alot of stop hunting, some institutional traders are acting like savages and i'm sure they've made alot alot of money these months.
I don't see this volatility as negative, but it forces us to change our trading style, for instance with not using that much Stop loss orders. Since september i take on average 20 trades a week, and only use SL on 1 or 2 maybe. If i get a good entry i'll wait patiently, because i know that if i put a stop loss, even if it's 100 pips away with this current savage volatility it will get hit and then come back and be profitable.
Closed both my yesterday's longs :
eur-y with 102 pips
g-y with 40 pips
Guys
Good analysis.I agree that with more volatility stop losses are being hit more.I prefer to be position trader following 4 hour charts,because i am not quick enough with shoert term charts.Naftulas analysis as a position trader was great.Miss them.
I also agree I see majors rising and yen falling.But he is past is any guide ignore what i say.
Today,s trade.
Made 60 pips earlier on GB/USD long 1.4220 to 1.428.
Taken another long at 1.422 and looking to exit at 1.4320.(I think my luck has run out.)
I still haven't sold my gb/jy long.Missed my chance again.
By the way I think Dr has got it wrong today but never know day is young.
hi guys, jusyt writing from on holiday! haha
put buy order on g-u for 3800 approx, and one at 4400 for topside break out
hope this helps rk (what you were saying about trading sytle)
then i will buy g-j and maybe some others when entry is g-u is made, with careful noting of u-y flows...
:)
buy order for 860
So? Nobody is trading ?
I've been busy these days with some other work, and won't trade for the rest of the week, actively.
Although i took new g-y longs yesterday at 135,55 and g-u 1,3725.
If i'd be trading actively these days i'd short eur-gbp, but don't want to do it if im not in front.
Take care
hit my limit at 4060 with g-u
a nice 200 points
look to rebuy at 4015, or 3600
best wishes
My limit was reached too this morning, since i wasn't trading...anyway, nice profits:
1,3992 on g-u, with almost 270 pips profit.
G-y at 135,55 is still open, i've put stop at 136.90 to lock some profits, but i'm willing to ride it till 139-140 at least.
Morning Guys
Following position taken from Friday.
Long GB/USD 1.3902 sold 1.4150
" " 1.4039 sold 1.4190
Today
LOng again at 1.4101 and 1.407
GB/JY long 138.2
Hey RK !
I've taken positions too:
gb-us long: 1,3995 and 1,4085
eur-us long: 1,2970
gb-y long: 138,43
eur-gbp short: 0,9270
Took a gbp-chf long at 1,66.
I'm very bearish with CHF since last week, the swiss government has been the first one to officially say it will intervene in the FX market if CHF gains value against majors.
I see potential till 1,73 minimum, but will probably close it around 1,68 and maybe reenter again if it dips for the long run.
I have a few long positions on gb/Usd 1.414 ave.Getting a bit worried about these with a trend line at res of 1.4040.
Todays trade.
Bought long gb/usd 1.3881
Sold Halves 1.3942/1.3954
Still got GB/JY long 1 lot 1.3862!!!
Ben Are u still bullish on cable at these levels.They seem to be doing higher lows.
CLosed eur-usd with 123 pips but still keeping all my GBP longs, with Yen,USD,EUR and CHF.
I will keep them till next week, because i'm sure GBP will rise big soon.
The only one i'm worried is GB-CHF, because i'm not used to trade this pair, but if it still breaks the low tommorrow i'm going to take new longs to average. The rest i'll wait patiently.
well done Ben
You were about cable
Thanks RK, but that's just the beginning i think next week will be GBP week.
I took new longs on eur-us at 1,3455 and gb-us at 1,4237.
I've moved my stop on gb-us to 1,4390.
Still holding gbp longs with eur,chf and yen.
Closed gb-us with 300 pips and eur-us with 200 pips.
Next big dip i'll go long again.
Went long USD-JPY at 94,05, will average again at 93 and finally at 90, if it goes below i'll wait patiently.
hey people
back in the smoke ;)
g-u tripped a limit order i had at 1.4400
...do you think I should hold now, or are we at a short-trm top?
daily looks like attack on resistane - I think we'll see at least 4750 to 5000.
ben, what do you think?
Hi Maxwell, nice to see you again !
I just took a new long on g-u too at 1,4430.
I personally think next week they will rise GBP much more than EUR, so i still some potential till 1,50 zone before there's a serious rebound.
I also think next week they will drop EUR-GBP till at least 0,90, which will make GBP rise more than EUR against USD and Yen.
What do you think? Do you think there's still room for today to break resistance? or it will break it next week ?
BTW, where's ANON ? we miss you anon, come back ! hehe
sold my long at 560 last week
for yen crosses depends on u-y, if it keeps going down then will dampen gbp/eur-yen crosses like last week
... waiting for g-u now, slow stalling! trapped between 4400 and 4650, so looking to buy soon or watch support towards 4400 for rebuying or reverse, e-g will push up gbp a bit, but this may be short lived if dollar generally moves up again, which means short term top
have a good week
hope to be posting later
Hi All
I got rid of my cable this morning at 1.4610 and GB/JY 140.1.
Waiting for retracement.
Agree with Maxwell.1.44 to 1.46 range important.Break over 1.4650 could see 1.495/1.5
I've closed all my longs on g-u and e-u too.
Just holding my gbp-chf, eur-gbp, gbp-yen (139,65) and us-yen.
Will wait like you guys for retracement, or breakout to take new longs on majors.
Yestrday closed my gbp-chf at break even. And my g-y at 144,22 with 450 pips.
Went long today e-u at 1,3470 and g-u at 1,4590.
I sold gb/jy 120 pips
cable 60 pips(2 lots)
No open position now.waiting
Hi Guys,
I won't be trading or coming here for the next 2 weeks, i'm going for a business trip to Asia (malaysia, China and India). Hope you all have a great trading !
See you in 2 weeks !
hi guys... I think there's only 4 people using this blog, right`?
ben hope ur enjoying ur business trip!!
>> I'm using G-U and U-J as the keys to my trading at the moment
went long G-J at 145 with 500 pips, stop at 150, may put trail on...
any long would have done well, but now I'm looking at 1.50 for G-U and 102 for U-J as important "areas."
Do you guys have any ideas - well done Anon, nice long term idea with the chart, great. What technicals are you using these days, just patterns like this?
maxwell
yes, seems only 4 of us are active on this blog. hope naftula gets well soon to keep this blog going.
I use patterns sometimes. usually i follow naftula's system on 4 hr charts. AUD seems good for a long, and USD/JPY may have some more downside before going long. GBP/USD is also getting ready for a long with 1.5150 as target. GBP/JPY I will look to enter long @ 146 for 155 target. eur/usd is also getting interesting - for long around 1.3225 for 1.400??? any comments??
Hi Guys
I am still trading.Taking various pots at GB/JY and GB/USD
Still waiting for 1.50 on cable!!!
Interesting level.
Hi Guys !!
Long time !
I haven't traded much these 3 weeks, but now i'm back !
Taking new longs on eur-y a 127,12 and g-y at 143,07.
I'll wait a little bit to take longs on majors.
What about you ? How have you been doing ? Any long positions holding?
hi ben
good to have you back. its over 2 months and naftula is not back yet. hope he has recovered completely.
no open trades. looking to long eur/usd and gbp/jpy. i was out of gbp/jpy short trade too early - @ 145.90, my trailing s/l was hit :(
Hi Anon !
Yes, true, it's been very long since we haven't seen Naftula. I'll send him an email tomorrow to know how he's doing.
I'm taking a EUR-USD long at 1,29.
And will wait till tomorrow to go long G-u.
i am long g/y @ 142.3 and e/u long @ 1.2960.
ben, what are your profit target for your open trades?
Anon,
With eur-us around 1,30, more or less 100 pips.
And with Yen crosses 200-300 pips, till 146 and 129.
Yours ?
I sent an email to Naftula last night, he hasn't replied yet...
Ben
my trailing stop got triggered on g/y for 54 pips :(
e/u still open with t/p @ 1.3110. will trail stop once 50 pips in the money.
I'm seeing some profits now, i'm keeping stop at g-y to blok at least 100 pips. I'm keeping eur-us and eur-yen freely rolling, since i still see more room for them to recover.
I regret not taking g-u longs hehe
Ben
any open trades or trade plans?
i got stopped (again) on e/u for 60 pips!
Hi Anon,
I wnet long G-y at 140,35 amd eur-us at 1,3160.
Next drop i'll long g-u and e-y too.
hi ben
i went long g/y @ 140.70 and t/p 142.25 with stop @ entry.
i will wait a while before i long e/u.
Nice trades Anon,
I closed my e-u long with 120 pips and g-y with 250 pips.
Also took a e-y long at 128,20 , earning 80 pips now, but will keep it for longer with stop at entry.
ben
unfortunately i got stopped @ entry, and i didn't take another trade.
you made some good pips, great!
what's your view on g/y?
Hey Anon,
I think G-Y might be ready to break 150 again and try to reach 160, maybe in the next 2 weeks.
Closed e-y with 200 pips.
Going long again e-u at 1,3280 and g-u at 1,4840.
Not taking yen longs yet, i want to see g-y around 144 and e-y around 120 to go long again.
i meant 129 for e-y
i have short signals for e/u, g/u, a/u, e/j,& g/j. Not taking any as they may be good for 50-100 pips as a counter trend move.
Did you take the shorts finally ?
I closed friday all my longs, and took new ones this morning: g-u at 1,4870 and e-u at 1,3268.
I'll add later if they dip more.
Waiting for a significant dip on Yen crosses to enter long.
bought g-u at 4915
stops at +1 ;)
yen at interesting pivot
i took a short on g/y @ 148 and kept a t/p @ 147. missed by a few pips on fri. plan to add another lot when it reaches 149.50 area.
yes, u/j is trading in a 50 pip range for 2 days now. will it explode - to the north or south?
ben
nice trades you got there!!
hedged g-u at 4964, for another dip or reverse
Closed g-u with 110 pips and e-u with 92 pips.
If G-u breaks 1,50 today and stays above it for a couple of days, i will take more longs on g-u for a more longer term, aiming 1,55.
It will be interesting to see what eur-gbp does in the next days.
I'm still waiting for a considerable dip in yen crosses to go long...not feeling comfortable longing now.
ben
what do you see for g/y? i see it is o/s on all time frames, but not sure whether a top is in place yet.
Hi Anon,
You're right, and right now i'm not pretty sure. In my opinion there's still some room for a little (fr this pair little is 500 pips) downard stop hunt and then definitely stay above 150 as support.
Hi Guys
How has it been.
Have been trading a little but full swing from today.
Shorts as follows
gu 1.5130
gy 148.5
Hi RK
I'm long g-y 147,50, g-u 1,5137 and e-y 132,12.
RK - great calls.
Ben - everybody is expecting yen crosses to rise. So wait patiently.
Any update on Naftula,miss his trade set-ups.
Hi guys,
I sent an email to Naftula 2 weeks ago, he still ahsn't replied.
I hope he's doing fine....
I took new longs today: g-y 145,25 , e-y 130,53, usd-y 96,06.
took a long g/y @ 144.75. i also have long signal for u/y @ 95.50 but not taking it as i seldom trade this pair.
ben
what are profit targets on your open trades? do you see 148 happening on g/y?
Hi anon,
yes i see it hapenning, if not tomorrow, monday or tuesday maximum.
Hi Ben
Are your trades still open?
I tried hedging and am now with a long on g/y at 145.10 with tp at 146.95.
Hi Anon, yes they're still open and i even took new positions this morning that i closed later with small profits. But i'm still holding the first longs.
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